President Donald Trump’s decision to offer an indefinite ceasefire has created confusion in the financial markets, with analysts struggling to predict how the war might conclude. It also suggests that Trump is increasingly trapped and has heightened fears that the worst may still lie ahead.
Donald Trump thought the war would be brief
Trump’s decision to attack Iran came after a tense meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu at the Situation Room. According to the New York Times, Bibi and Mossad’s David Barnea convinced Trump that Iran was at its weakest in years and that the attack would be brief.
Eight weeks later, the crisis still remains, and there is no end in sight. This situation escalated this week as Vice President JD Vance, Jared Kushner, and Steve Witkoff planned to travel to Pakistan for talks with Iran.
A day earlier, Trump had touted a potential deal the US was negotiating with Iran, noting that it would be better than Barack Obama’s JCPOA, which involved the biggest world powers, including Russia and China.
However, the planned talks did not happen as Iran remained non-committed on whether it would participate in them. In the end, the US delegation decided not to attend, with Trump citing the divisions in the Iranian government.
The reality, however, is that Trump is desperate to make a deal with Iran, a country that is in no hurry to end the war. While Iran did not start the war, it believes that ending on US terms will lead to another attack in the coming years.
Why Donald Trump is trapped
There are a few reasons why Trump is trapped in a situation with no good options.
First, he has not achieved any goal he had when he started the war. Despite his repeated statements, a regime change has not happened. Instead, he replaced the 87-year-old Ayatollah Khamenei with the younger Mojtaba Khamenei. The IRGC apparatus remains intact.
Second, while Trump and Netanyahu have destroyed a lot of things, media reports show that Iran is still armed to the core, with about half of its ballistic missiles still intact
Third, Trump has been unable to take the enriched uranium he bombed last year. In a statement last week, he said that Iran had agreed to have the US take the uranium.
At the same time, the war Trump thought would take less than four weeks is now in the eighth week with no end in sight.
Domestically, things have changed for Trump, with some of his most loyal supporters like Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens turning against him. In a statement this week, Carlson noted that his support for Trump would haunt him for so long.
The worst part for Trump is that the war has raised the possibility that Republicans will lose the upcoming elections. Polymarket and Kashi polls show that Democrats will win the House and the Senate, raising the possibility that he will be impeached.
At the same time, Trump has no good way to exit the war. Any deal he signs with Iran will be worse than what Obama negotiated, as Iran will now seek more concessions.
Also, if he decides to escalate, Iran has more options to cause maximum pain. It may destroy civilian infrastructure, including desalination plants, in countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Iran may also destroy Saudi Arabia’s oil pipeline or use Ansah Allah to shut down the Red Sea, a move that will impact another 12% of global oil.
Trump may as well decide to walk away from Iran, a move that will leave the situation worse than before, as the latter will have full control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Another big issue is Israel, which may push the US to fight by launching another attack. This is important as Israel and the US have different goals in this war. Trump wants a nuclear deal, while Israel wants a complete destruction of Iran to eliminate the threat.
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