Nvidia’s upcoming third-quarter earnings on November 19 may be the defining moment for markets in 2025, with Wall Street anxiously awaiting results that will determine the trajectory of the entire AI and semiconductor industry.
With its $4.67 trillion market cap and heavy S&P 500 weighting, Nvidia’s report is expected to trigger exceptional volatility, a potential 7% to 8% swing, equivalent to $320 billion in value, the biggest for any company in history.
This event will signal whether AI infrastructure spending can keep driving market growth through 2026.
Analysts expect $54.9 billion in revenue, up 56% year-over-year, and EPS of about $1.24.
But the market demands not just strong results, but a bullish outlook; any weak guidance risks a wave of selling throughout the tech ecosystem, with stakes potentially affecting trillions in related trading.
What Nvidia’s options data reveals about market expectations
The options market is telling an intriguing story about how traders view Nvidia’s earnings risk.
The implied volatility for options expiring after the November 19 earnings announcement sits at approximately 7.08% to 7.38%, translating into an expected stock price range of $177.60 to $204.54, roughly a $13.47 swing from the current price near $190.
This elevated implied volatility reflects genuine uncertainty despite bullish positioning.
Interestingly, options traders are displaying mixed sentiment through the put-call ratio of 0.59, which suggests bullish leanings but with complexity beneath the surface.
Historically, Nvidia’s actual post-earnings volatility has exceeded the pre-announced implied volatility in only four of the past fifteen quarters, a low success rate indicating that the options market has generally captured the true magnitude of moves accurately.
What’s particularly telling is the spread between Nvidia’s implied volatility at 54.34% and its historical volatility of 41.95%, placing it at the 68th percentile, signaling that traders are pricing in elevated short-term uncertainty while remaining grounded in historical patterns.
Options strategists are flagging a potential “short volatility” play after earnings, since IV typically declines by 5 to 20 percentage points after Nvidia reports, averaging around 10 points historically.
This suggests sophisticated traders expect volatility compression post-announcement, even if the stock moves significantly in price.
The broader takeaway: the options market believes Nvidia will move decisively, but traders aren’t convinced the actual move will exceed what the premiums currently reflect, indicating a market that’s simultaneously cautious yet braced for impact.
Forward guidance and the AI durability question
Perhaps the most pivotal element of this earnings call will be Nvidia’s guidance for the fourth quarter.
Wall Street is currently expecting Q4 revenue guidance around $61-$61.5 billion, representing substantial sequential growth.
This forward outlook will essentially answer the question investors desperately want answered: Can the AI boom maintain its momentum through 2026, or are we seeing signs of a slowdown?
If guidance comes in below $60 billion, analysts warn it could trigger a severe correction. Conversely, if Nvidia delivers a beat on Q3 revenue and raises full-year expectations, the stock could soar.
The company also needs to address lingering concerns about China, specifically, whether President Trump will greenlight H20 chip exports, which could unlock an entirely new revenue stream.
Morgan Stanley recently raised its price target, citing industry checks that point to material acceleration in Blackwell demand, suggesting upside potential remains.
But with major investors like Peter Thiel’s fund and SoftBank trimming positions before earnings, the consensus optimism is being tested by increasingly skeptical big money.
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