The Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF will be in the spotlight this week as Bitcoin price either breaks out or breaks down. These funds have remained in a tight range in the past few months as BTC has moved sideways. So, is it safe to buy or sell these spot Bitcoin ETFs?
Bitcoin price technical analysis
The IBIT, ARKB, and FBTC funds track the price of Bitcoin, meaning that their price action will depend on what the coin does.
Turning to the daily chart, we see that Bitcoin has been in a tight range since November last year when it jumped to $108,277. It has formed a double-top pattern at that level whose neckline is at $89,200. A double-top is one of the most bearish patterns in technical analysis since it signals that bulls are afraid of placing bets above that price.
Bitcoin has moved below the 50-day moving average, which stands at $97,620, while the MACD and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have moved sideways. The RSI has remained slightly below the neutral level of 50, while the MACD is below the zero line.
Most importantly, Bitcoin has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern whose two lines are about to get to their confluence level. Therefore, the coin will likely have a big move this week that will impact the top ETFs like the FBTC, IBIT, and the ARKB. A bearish breakdown will point to more downside, potentially to $89,200, while a strong rebound will push it to $108,277.
Potential catalysts for IBIT, FBTC, and ARKB ETFs
The main catalyst for the IBIT, FBTC, and ARKB ETFs will be news on tariffs as the month ends. Donald Trump has said that he will implement fresh tariffs on iron and aluminium imports on March 1. He will add a 25% levy on these crucial items, a move that will lead to higher inflation because many things are made using these metals.
Trump has also pledged fresh 25% tariffs on imports for Mexican and Canadian goods unless the two countries agree to some major changes on immigration. There are chances that he will delay these tariffs since immigration at the Mexican border has gone down significantly in his first few weeks of his term.
Trump is also thinking about reciprocal tariffs, a move that will match tariffs by countries. Such a move may see higher tariffs on some countries and lower ones on others.
Tariffs have an impact on Bitcoin and other crypto prices as they lead to market volatility and high inflation.
The other potential catalyst for Bitcoin price will be the upcoming NVIDIA earnings, which will affect the stock and crypto market. Odds are that NVIDIA’s results will be higher than expected as chip demand continues. However, a weak guidance may lead to a stock crash, which willl also affect the price of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin price will also react to the latest Bybit hack and its implications to the market. Lazarus Group, a North Korean hacking organization, successfully hacked Bybit and made away with over $1.4 billion worth of Ethereum coins. It is unclear whether the hack and its fallout will have a major implication on Bitcoin prices.
Bitcoin price will react to the latest Strategic Bitcoin Reserves news from the US. There are rising odds that Trump will announce these reserves later this year, a move that may push other countries to buy the coin. For example, Czech Republic has said that it wants to spend billions of euros buying Bitcoin in the near term.
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