China’s population dynamics remain a critical challenge for its economic and social stability.
Despite a modest rise in births in 2024, the nation’s population shrank for the third consecutive year, highlighting systemic issues that years of government interventions have yet to resolve.
The total population fell by over 1.39 million to 1.408 billion, even though 9.54 million babies were born this year—520,000 more than the previous year. This paradox points to deeper demographic shifts beyond immediate birth rate fluctuations.
China’s population problem
The decline in China’s population reflects a shrinking workforce and an ageing demographic, both of which pose long-term economic risks.
Over decades, the workforce has consistently contracted, reducing productivity and innovation potential.
Meanwhile, the proportion of elderly citizens continues to rise, putting enormous pressure on China’s pension and healthcare systems.
Policies introduced in recent years to counter these trends have had limited impact.
Furthermore, government initiatives to encourage larger families—such as expanded access to childcare, housing support, and healthcare—have yet to yield significant results.
The rising costs of childcare and education, coupled with job uncertainty and a slowing economy, have deterred many young Chinese from marrying and starting families.
A 12.4% increase in marriages in 2023, largely delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic, contributed to a rebound in births in 2024, according to demographers.
However, the birth rate is expected to decline again in 2025.
In China, marriages are a key indicator of birth rates, as many single women are ineligible for child-raising benefits.
China’s one-child policy
China’s current demographic challenges are rooted in its restrictive family planning policies of the past.
The one-child policy, enforced for decades, created a deeply ingrained cultural norm favouring smaller families.
When the policy was relaxed in 2016 to allow two children per family, and later expanded further, the anticipated baby boom failed to materialise.
Data reveals that the number of births in 2024, although slightly higher than in 2023, was still the second lowest since the establishment of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.
Bloomberg Intelligence projects that China’s population could fall to 1.36 billion by 2035—levels last seen over a decade ago—unless substantial structural changes occur.
What does this mean for China’s economy?
The economic repercussions of a declining population are vast. Fewer working-age individuals mean slower economic growth and a diminished capacity to support a growing elderly population.
China’s pension system, already underfunded, is expected to face severe strain, while plans to raise the retirement age—announced in 2023—have been met with widespread public resistance.
Experts argue that addressing this demographic crisis requires more than piecemeal policy adjustments.
Comprehensive reforms are necessary to make childcare and education more affordable, ensure equitable access to healthcare, and reshape societal perceptions about family life.
Without such measures, China’s economic resilience may be at risk, potentially affecting its global standing.
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