Moderna Inc (NASDAQ: MRNA) tanked as much as 20% in premarket on Monday after lowering its full-year sales guidance by about $1.0 billion.
The biotech giant cited headwinds as it revised its outlook to $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion in sales for 2025.
Its previous guidance called for up to $3.5 billion in sales this year.
Moderna expects to realize a bigger chunk of the estimated sales in the back half of 2025.
Majority of its revenue will be attributed to its Covid shot and the respiratory syncytial virus vaccine it has launched fairly recently, as per a press release on Monday.
Moderna stock is now down close to 30% versus its year-to-date high.
Why did Moderna lower sales guidance today?
Moderna saw a sharp decline in its COVID market share (US retail) from 48% to 40% only in 2024 – and the company expects a further decline this year.
“As we head into 2025, there are a handful of uncertainties that we’re planning for. They could be tailwinds, but right now we’re seeing them as headwinds,” Jamey Mock – the chief financial officer of Moderna said in a CNBC interview today.
Other than increased competition, MRNA expects lower vaccination rates to weigh on its sales in 2025.
Vaccination rates were down about 7.0% in the US retail market last year.
Moderna stock does not currently pay a dividend to appear any more attractive for the income investors either.
What else could weigh on MRNA sales in 2025?
Other factors that Moderna cited for its lowered full-year sales guidance this morning include timing for some of its manufacturing contracts.
Uncertainty related to what advisors may recommend the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention on its RSV revaccination could also weigh on revenue in 2025, according to MRNA.
On the flip side, the company’s chief of finance is committed to lowering cash cost expenses by up to $1.0 billion this year and another $500 million in 2026.
“We’re taking he right amount of cost to preserve our cash. We’re excited to invest and diversify our portfolio,” he told CNBC today.
Note that Moderna shares printed a new 52-week low on Monday.
Should you buy Moderna stock on the weakness?
Moderna generated just over $3.0 billion in revenue in 2024 – a number that represents a massive decline from $6.7 billion in 2023 and $18 billion in 2022.
That’s part of the reason why Argus analysts downgraded MRNA shares to “hold” last month.
The investment firm said it will revisit its view if Moderna returns to earnings growth and brings more products to the market.
Until then, however, the upside in its stock price is rather limited, its analysts told clients at the time.
Note that Moderna stock traded at a high of $450 at the peak of the COVID pandemic.
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