The Nasdaq 100 Index held steady last week as it rose close to its all-time high of $26,145. It has risen by over 7.76% from its lowest point in November, and by 55% from the year-to-date low. This article explores some of the top catalysts for the index and its top ETFs like QQQ and QQQM.
Federal Reserve interest rate decision to impact the Nasdaq 100 Index
One of the most important catalysts for the Nasdaq 100 Index and its ETFs, like the QQQ and QQM, is the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, scheduled on Wednesday this week.
Polymarket data shows that most analysts expect that the bank will cut interest rates by 0.25% in the upcoming meeting, a move that will bring the benchmark figure to between 3.50% and 3.75%.
Fed officials supportive of the rate cut are primarily concerned about the labor market, which has deteriorated in the past few months, with a recent report showing that the economy lost over 32k jobs in November, the worst reading in over two years.
These officials also note that inflation, while high, has not surged after Donald Trump’s tariffs. In fact, there are signs that inflation is coming down, with gasoline prices falling to the lowest level in years. Gasoline prices impact other items because most American products are transported using trucks and other vehicles.
A Fed cut will be bullish for the Nasdaq 100 Index, which is primarily made up of technology companies.
However, it it worth noting that the rate cut has already been priced in by market participants. As such, there is a risk that the index will reverse if it happens as investors sell the news.
Also, the index may reverse if the Fed’s officials hint of a possible pause in the next interest rate decisions.
Key technology earnings
The other notable catalyst for the Nasdaq 100 Index and its ETFs, like the QQQ and QQQM, will be earnings of top technology companies.
The most important one will be Larry Ellison’s Oracle, which will publish its numbers on Wednesday. These will be crucial numbers because the company has become a major player in the AI industry.
Its most recent results were some of the most significant as they showed that the company had over $455 billion in orders, with most of them related to the AI sector.
For example, it has established a $300 billion relationship with OpenAI, the $500 billion AI startup. As such, traders will watch its financial results, looking specifically at its margins and orders.
The other notable companies to watch will be Adobe, Synopsys, Broadcom, Chewy, and Costco. Strong results will likely push it substantially higher than where it is today.
Warner Bros. Discovery deal with Netflix
The other important catalyst for the Nasdaq 100 Index and its ETFs is the upcoming deal between Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery, which was announced last week. This is the most important media deal in years, and will create a giant conglomerate.
However, there are chances that this is not the end of the deal as Skydance Paramount has hinted that it will take its proposal directly to the shareholders. Also, some American politicians on both sides of the aisle have expressed concerns about the deal.
A risky pattern is forming on the Nasdaq 100 Index
The daily timeframe chart shows that the Nasdaq 100 Index is slowly forming the risky double-top pattern at $26,143. This pattern is made up of two peaks and a neckline, which, in this case is at $23,868. As such, if it happens this week, it could lead to a pullback.
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