Nvidia’s stock gained on Monday, lifted by renewed optimism around US corporate spending on artificial-intelligence chips, even as restrictions on sales to China continue to cloud the outlook.
Shares of the chipmaker were up 2.40% at $207.40 in early trading. Coming into the session, Nvidia’s stock had already risen 51% year to date.
Other semiconductor stocks also advanced, with Advanced Micro Devices up 1.2% and Broadcom gaining 0.7% in early trading.
The momentum follows upbeat earnings from major technology firms, including Alphabet’s Google, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Amazon.com.
Collectively, these companies indicated they expect to spend nearly $405 billion in capital expenditures this year, driven largely by the buildout of AI data centres powered by Nvidia’s processors.
Trump signals continued curbs on China Sales
One challenge for Nvidia remains the suspension of its chip exports to China.
US President Donald Trump, in an interview with CBS’s 60 Minutes on Sunday, reaffirmed that Washington will continue restricting sales of advanced processors to Chinese customers.
“We will let them deal with Nvidia but not in terms of the most advanced [chips]. The most advanced, we will not let anybody have them other than the United States,” Trump said.
China has also discouraged domestic companies from using Nvidia’s AI processors.
Executives at Nvidia have indicated the company is now forecasting no revenue from China, implying a potential loss of between $2 billion and $5 billion per quarter in sales.
Microsoft secures license to export Nvidia chips to UAE
In a separate development, Microsoft received approval from the US government to export Nvidia’s advanced AI chips to the United Arab Emirates.
The approval, granted in September, makes Microsoft “the first company to receive a license under the Trump administration” for such exports, according to Microsoft President Brad Smith, who confirmed the news to the Financial Times.
The authorisation follows an agreement in May between Trump and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan to establish an AI data centre campus in Abu Dhabi.
The project had previously faced delays due to Commerce Department export restrictions on Nvidia’s high-performance chips.
Analysts remain firmly bullish on Nvidia
Analysts remain bullish on Nvidia’s long-term prospects despite geopolitical headwinds.
Loop Capital maintained its Buy rating and raised its price target for the stock to $350 from $250, implying a 73% upside.
Analyst Ananda Baruah said Nvidia could double its GPU shipments to 2.1 million units, while also benefiting from higher average selling prices.
Goldman Sachs also reiterated its Buy rating last week and lifted its price target to $240 per share ahead of the company’s third-quarter results.
The firm expects Nvidia to deliver “a beat-and-raise quarter,” citing stronger data center demand tied to AI infrastructure spending.
“We expect investors to focus on incremental details on Nvidia’s $500 billion Datacenter revenue forecast, OpenAI deployments in CY26, and the Rubin ramp in CY26,” said analyst James Schneider in a preview note.
Goldman raised its data centre revenue estimate by 13% to reflect higher hyperscaler capital expenditure and management commentary.
The firm’s third- and fourth-quarter earnings forecasts of $1.28 and $1.49 per share, respectively, stand 3% and 5% above the Street consensus.
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