Brazil’s monetary policy committee is expected to keep the Selic rate steady at 15% on Wednesday, according to a pre-Copom survey by XP cited in an InfoMoney report.
The survey of 25 macro-multimarket managers also showed expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, highlighting the divergence between Brazil’s firmly restrictive stance and the United States’ gradual easing cycle.
While no change is expected this week, longer-term views are shifting.
Managers lowered their year-end 2026 Selic projection to 12.25% from 12.6%, the survey showed.
Changing currency positions favour the Real
The prospect of lower US interest rates has shaped managers’ currency strategies, with 68% of respondents in XP’s September survey reporting long positions in the Brazilian real, up from 41% in the previous poll.
The shift reflects expectations of further dollar weakness against emerging-market currencies.
XP said the increase was driven by both global and domestic factors, including looser US monetary policy and modest improvements in Brazil’s economic outlook.
Pessimism toward the local economy has also eased, with only 18% of managers holding a negative view, compared with 73% in March.
Fed’s easing cycle takes next step
The Federal Reserve boosted interest rates to a two-decade high of 5.25% to 5.50% before initiating cuts late last year.
Since December, the federal funds rate has ranged from 4.25% to 4.50%.
Markets expect another 25 basis point decrease on Wednesday, but the speed and amount of lowering in 2025 are uncertain.
According to XP, the ramifications of US policy reforms include lower global risk, increased investor appetite for riskier assets, and favourable movements in yield curves and emerging-market currencies such as the real.
The Fed’s case for easing has been strengthened by labour market data.
August payrolls reported 22,000 new jobs, well below projections of 75,000.
Softer hiring reduces wage pressure, giving the central bank greater room to soften policy.
Outlook for inflation and growth improves
The survey also reflected a more constructive macro backdrop for Brazil, with inflation forecasts trending lower through the year.
The January projection for the IPCA stood at 5.71%, edging up to 5.75% in March before declining each month to reach 4.79% in September — the lowest estimate for 2025, though still above the official 3% target.
On growth, managers now expect GDP to expand 2.28% in 2025, slightly below the 2.35% seen in the previous survey but higher than the 2.06% forecast in January.
XP noted that resilience in external activity and easing exchange rate pressures are helping contain inflation expectations.
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