While US soybean exports have decreased due to China’s shift to Brazilian suppliers, American corn exports are showing strong performance.
First quarter 2025 data suggests corn export volumes may surpass those of the previous three years, technology company Signal Ocean said in a report.
Corn exports
Corn, the largest US dry bulk export by weight, is crucial in determining vessel demand from US ports.
Specifically, roughly 30% of Panamax, 26% of Handysize, and 22% of Supramax demand is driven by corn exports.
Signal Ocean said:
Corn exports, therefore, lead those of soybeans in terms of tonnage, but trail in terms of value.
In terms of weight, corn exports represented 40% of all US agricultural exports in 2023.
This percentage increased to 45% in 2024, and thus far in 2025, corn comprises 59% of these exports.
In the US, the prevailing feeling is that corn presents more lucrative prospects due to its greater protection from tariff retaliations compared to soybeans.
Additionally, corn benefits from governmental initiatives like the Renewable Fuel Standards, further bolstering its profit potential.
This aligns with the overall market sentiment.
Each year, a minimum amount of ethanol must be used in the nation’s fuel supply as mandated by this policy.
Notably, nearly 40% of the US corn demand is driven by ethanol production.
“As a result, farmers in the US are planning to plant more corn in the coming year, which should lead to a larger yield of corn, possibly for export in the next harvest cycle,” the technology company said.
Asia demand
Corn utilisation differs globally. Notably, in the United States, approximately 40% of corn serves as livestock feed, with an equal proportion allocated to ethanol manufacturing.
In Japan, the US’s top export market, this changes drastically as over 66% of corn is used for animal feed, and ethanol production accounts for less than 1%, according to some sources, the company said.
“Therefore, it can be difficult to predict where the growth demand for US corn will come from.”
“Yet, examining the current top export regions and evaluating their performance in key corn end-use sectors may provide the necessary indications of whether they will increase or decrease imports of US corn.”
Japan has historically been the top destination for US corn exports, primarily for animal feed.
However, due to an aging population, shifting diets, and a focus on feed efficiency and alternatives, meat consumption and subsequently corn demand in Japan are projected to decline in the medium to long term.
Nevertheless, short-term corn demand is expected to remain stable, Signal Ocean said in the report.
Growth expectations from Mexico
Mexico, a significant importer of US corn, shows promising growth prospects, according to the technology company.
Primarily importing US corn for animal feed, its meat demand is projected to increase in tandem with its growing population, the report said.
Corn is a dietary staple in Mexico, contributing approximately 40% of calories in some rural areas.
Consequently, as the population expands, the demand for white corn, used in food production, is expected to rise.
While the US exports significantly less white corn (about 1 ton out of 17 tons) to Mexico, the growing population and its increasing white corn demand a favorable factors for US corn exports.
This trend may take time to fully influence corn demand. However, in the near term, Mexico’s demand for US corn remains robust and positive, Signal Ocean said.
Larger availability of corn
Robust US corn exports are boosting supramax, handymax, and panamax demand from American ports, offsetting tariff pressures on soybean exports.
“Looking ahead, farmers are planting more corn as the crop is more shielded from the US-China trade war, which should result in a large availability of the crop for export in the next harvest season,” the company said.
Japan stands as the primary importer of US corn. While near-term demand is expected to stay strong, long-term growth appears limited due to demographic shifts and evolving consumer tastes in Japan.
Vietnam may become a growing export market for US corn due to increased domestic animal feed production and the potential for lower American prices, shifting from reliance on Argentinian and Brazilian imports, the report noted.
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