The United Nations AIDS agency has warned that the number of new HIV infections worldwide could surge to 2,000 per day, with AIDS-related deaths potentially increasing tenfold, if the halted US funding is not reinstated or replaced.
The warning comes as President Donald Trump has placed a hold on nearly all US foreign aid.
However, the State Department has assured that critical HIV programs under the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) would remain operational.
HIV infections may reach 2,000 daily
UNAIDS executive director Winnie Byanyima stressed the severity of the aid cuts, stating that the sudden loss of support is directly linked to a projected 2,000 new HIV infections per day globally.
Risk of 2,000 new HIV infections a day after US aid freeze, UN says bit.ly/423D4oO
The figure represents a potential return to infection rates seen during the worst phases of the epidemic in the 1990s and early 2000s.
Byanyima highlighted that while a gradual reduction of support may have been manageable, the “sudden” and complete cut in US aid has led to the immediate disruption of life-saving programs.
These include antiretroviral treatments, HIV testing, mother-to-child transmission prevention, and outreach services among high-risk populations.
Africa and Latin America face high risk
The funding gap is likely to affect low-income countries in Africa most severely, where health systems are heavily reliant on US-backed HIV programs.
However, UNAIDS cautions that the threat is not limited to Africa.
The agency warns that key populations in Eastern Europe and Latin America—such as men who have sex with men, people who inject drugs, and sex workers—will also face increased vulnerability due to reduced outreach and harm-reduction services.
Without the continuation of aid, UNAIDS projects a global resurgence of the AIDS pandemic that could affect both high- and low-income regions.
The reversal of progress is expected to undermine over two decades of global efforts to end AIDS as a public health threat by 2030.
AIDS deaths may rise ten-fold by 2028
At the end of 2023, there were an estimated 600,000 AIDS-related deaths recorded globally.
Based on current modeling, UNAIDS warns that the figure could rise more than ten-fold in just four years without renewed funding.
The US has been a core contributor to programs under the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which has supported over 50 countries since its launch in 2003.
The $7.4 billion funding withdrawal is already leading to the shutdown of community-based clinics, interruption of treatment delivery, and the collapse of prevention campaigns.
UNAIDS stressed that unless emergency financing is restored, the global community may face irreversible damage, including the resurgence of drug-resistant HIV strains due to treatment discontinuation.
25 years of progress now at risk
The agency expressed concern that the global AIDS response could be “rolled back by decades” if emergency funding is not restored.
The situation is particularly dire for marginalized groups who face both heightened risk and barriers to healthcare access.
UNAIDS says these groups have just started to benefit from improved service coverage in recent years.
Byanyima warned that without swift intervention, the world may witness a repeat of the early years of the epidemic when millions died each year from AIDS-related illnesses, and treatment was inaccessible for the majority in low- and middle-income countries.
The World Health Organization, the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria, and several civil society organizations have echoed the call for a rapid resumption of US support.
Without it, the goal of eliminating AIDS as a public health threat by 2030 may no longer be attainable.
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