Ethereum price has crashed this year, as its on-chain metrics waned and spot ETH exchange-traded funds (ETF) outflows rose. ETH has crashed in the last two consecutive weeks, and is hovering at its lowest level since December 2023. Let’s explore why the value of Ethereum coin may continue falling in the near term.
Ethereum price has weak technicals
The weekly chart shows that the coin has been in a strong downward trend in the past few months. It has formed a triple-top chart pattern at about $4,050. This pattern is made up of three twin peaks and a neckline, which in this case, is at $2,153. It is one of the most bearish patterns in the market.
Ethereum price has moved to the neckline at $2,153, meaning that it may have a strong bearish breakdown soon. This pattern’s depth is about 46%, meaning that a similar crash from the neckline is at $1,142, which is about 45% below the current level.
Ethereum price has also crashed below the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level at $2,475. It has also moved below the 50-week and 100-week Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).
Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicators have pointed downwards. Therefore, the coin will likely continue falling in the coming months, with the initial target to watch being at $1,500. This bullish view will become invalid if the coin rises above the 38.2% retracement point at $3,000.
ETH price chart | Source: TradingView
ETH ETF outflows
Further, Ethereum price has crashed because of the waning demand among Wall Street investors. Recent data shows that all ETFs have accumulated over $2.7 billion in assets since their approvals. On the other hand, spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated over $40 billion in assets.
Ethereum ETFs have struggled partly because of the opportunity cost of holding the coin vs its ETFs. Holding Ethereum itself is more profitable than ETFs because of its staking features. Data shows that Ethereum has a staking market cap of over $72.8 billion, much higher than the total assets in ETFs, which stand at $7.7 billion.
Data by SoSoValue shows that spot Ethereum ETFs have been shedding assets in the past few weeks. It shed over $23 million in assets on Friday, after losing $35 million and $63 milion in the previous two days. Altogether, spot Ethereum ETFs have shed over $455 million in the last two weeks.
Ethereum network fees have tanked
Further, Ethereum is no longer making as much money as it used to in the past. It has made $206 million this year, making it the third most profitable layer-1 networks after Tron and Solana, which have made over $593 million and $346 million, respectively.
Ethereum was the most profitable blockchain network in the crypto industry and has now been overtaken. One of the main reasons for this is that Ethereum has been overtaken by Tron in terms of stablecoin transactions. Tron regularly handles over $60 billion worth of stablecoins each day, higher than Ethereum because of its higher fees.
Ethereum network has also lost market share against other chains like Solana, Arbitrum, and Base. Data shows that Ethereum network handled over $81 billion in the last 30 days, lower than Solana’s $92 billion. Ethereum layer-2 networks like Arbitrum and Base handled $24 billion and $30 billion.
Therefore, all these factors, coupled with the weak on-chain metrics mean that the token will struggle to gain market share in the coming months.
Read more: Ethereum price prediction March: Is another 50% crash possible?
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