On the 24th of February 2022, the dramatic war between Russia and Ukraine has began.
Three years later, US President Donald Trump has decided to push for a peace deal with Russia, effectively cutting Ukraine out of negotiations.
He also labelled President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a “dictator”.
Kyiv is now left scrambling for options while the US moves closer to Russia.
These developments are now reshaping global order as Europe and China recalculate their own strategies.
Is Ukraine being forced into peace?
Trump’s shift toward Russia has turned Ukraine from a top US ally into an outsider in its own war.
The president’s recent comments reflect more than just rhetoric.
He told the BBC that Russia now “has the cards” in peace talks because it controls large parts of Ukrainian territory.
Trump warned Zelenskyy, “Better move fast, or he won’t have a country left.”
This is a complete 180 from previous US policy.
Under President Biden, the US provided $183 billion in military and economic aid to Ukraine.
That lifeline is now uncertain.
Without US weapons, intelligence, and funding, Ukraine faces an uphill battle.
Ukraine’s other option is to accept a peace deal negotiated without its input.
Trump’s advisors, including National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, have framed this as necessary.
“You have to talk to both sides,” Waltz told Fox News.
But “both sides” now means the US and Russia—not Ukraine.
This exclusion became clear during recent US-Russia peace talks in Saudi Arabia.
Not only was Ukraine absent, but so were European allies.
Russian officials praised Trump’s approach, saying it aligned with Moscow’s view that Ukraine’s push for NATO membership provoked the war.
What’s behind Trump’s Russia push?
The driving force behind Trump’s approach seems to be speed and economics.
He wants the war over fast, claiming only his administration can achieve peace.
He’s also tying future US support for Ukraine to American business interests, particularly access to Ukraine’s vast mineral resources.
Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent presented Kyiv with a draft agreement giving US firms control of half the value of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals, including lithium, cobalt, and titanium.
These minerals are essential for batteries, defense systems, and clean energy technologies.
Ukraine holds some of the world’s largest untapped reserves, valued at hundreds of billions of dollars, according to the Ukrainian Geological Survey.
Zelenskyy rejected the deal, calling it “not a serious conversation.”
Trump’s response was swift.
He accused Ukraine of breaking the agreement and suggested Zelenskyy was prolonging the war to maintain the US “gravy train” of aid.
“He’s low in the real Ukrainian polls,” Trump claimed, although a February 2025 poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology showed Zelenskyy’s approval at 57%.
Trump’s economic angle extends beyond minerals.
His administration has hinted at broader cooperation with Russia. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said US and Russian officials discussed “geopolitical and economic cooperation” during the Riyadh talks.
This could include energy markets, trade deals, and arms control, with Ukraine sidelined entirely.
How is Europe reacting?
For European leaders, Trump’s turn toward Russia feels like betrayal. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called it “wrong and dangerous” to question Zelenskyy’s democratic legitimacy, noting that Ukraine’s elections were postponed legally under martial law.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that forcing Ukraine to capitulate would mean “capitulation of the whole West.”
The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, expressed concern that “the Russian narrative is really gaining ground.”
This trend undermines the West’s united front, leaving Europe exposed.
European countries have supported Ukraine with military aid, but they lack the industrial capacity to replace US supplies.
France and the UK are now planning to appeal directly to Trump for continued air support.
Without it, Ukraine’s defenses could collapse, allowing Russia to solidify its territorial gains.
The exclusion of Europe from peace talks also displays a weakening of transatlantic unity.
Trump’s actions suggest he views Russia as a potential partner rather than an adversary, leaving Europe to reconsider its own security strategies.
French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer are expected to visit Washington soon, hoping to salvage some influence in the negotiations.
Where does China stand now?
Once positioned as a potential peace broker, China now finds itself sidelined.
Trump had previously suggested working with China to leverage its economic sway over Russia.
But as the US and Russia negotiate directly, Beijing has been left out, raising uncomfortable questions for its leadership.
Xi Jinping has spent years cultivating ties with Putin, viewing Russia as a key ally against Western dominance.
China has been Russia’s economic lifeline during the war, buying discounted oil and providing dual-use goods for its defense industry.
Yet Trump’s outreach to Moscow threatens to weaken that partnership.
Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy, openly stated that the US aims to “force” Putin to rethink his alliances with China, Iran, and North Korea.
While experts doubt a full Russia-China split, the risk is enough to unsettle Beijing.
Yun Sun, a China specialist at the Stimson Center, called it a potential “reverse Nixon,” referring to the US strategy in the 1970s to split China from the Soviet Union.
Even if it’s just 30% of a reverse Nixon, it plants seeds of doubt in Beijing.
China’s main concern is that if Russia aligns more closely with the US, Trump will turn his focus back to China.
The US Defence has confirmed this, saying Washington can’t prioritize European security when it needs to “deter war with China.”
Beijing now faces the prospect of being the next target of US pressure once Ukraine is off the table.
This also explains a lot about Trump’s change in stance and becoming more “pro-Russia”.
What happens next?
Ukraine is now stuck between a rock and a hard place. It can try to continue the fight with dwindling resources or accept a peace deal shaped by its adversaries.
Things look better for Russia. Trump’s willingness to negotiate without Ukraine gives Putin leverage to solidify territorial gains.
Moscow has already welcomed Trump’s view that NATO expansion provoked the war, a stance no previous US president has taken.
Europe faces its own dilemma.
Without US support, the continent’s ability to defend Ukraine—and itself—becomes questionable.
Leaders like Macron and Scholz are trying their best to maintain transatlantic unity, but Trump’s actions suggest he’s more interested in realigning US interests toward Russia and away from traditional alliances.
China, meanwhile, is rethinking its strategy.
If Russia and the US find common ground, Beijing could face increased US pressure on trade, technology, and military issues.
Xi Jinping’s carefully built partnership with Putin now looks less stable, raising questions about China’s long-term strategy.
Even Ukraine itself seems to be rethinking its alliances.
After months of limited engagement, Zelenskyy has suggested China could play a role in pressuring Putin for peace.
“We are seeing, I think, for the first time, China’s interest,” Zelenskyy said after meeting top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi in Germany.
It’s a surprising change, but one that highlights just how much the ground has moved beneath Ukraine’s feet.
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