JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee remains bearish on Super Micro Computer Inc (NASDAQ: SMCI) even after it guided for $40 billion in revenue in its fiscal 2026.
Chatterjee is focused more on the fact that SMCI missed estimates in its fiscal second quarter and lowered its full-year revenue outlook last night.
He continues to rate Supermicro stock at “underweight” and sees a downside in it to $35 which indicates potential for about a 15% decline from current levels.
Why does JPM remain dovish on SMCI stock?
Usually, investors tend to give precedence to the future outlook on the current quarter results.
But the JPM analyst remains unimpressed with Super Micro Computer’s guidance as he’s not entirely convinced that the AI server company will be able to push its revenue up to $40 billion next year in the first place.
“SMCI has to bring execution proof points before credit for its aggressive FY26 revenue/margin expectations,” he told clients in a research note on Wednesday.
Note that Supermicro stock does not currently pay a dividend either, which makes it unattractive for those interested in setting up an additional source of passive income as well.
Supermicro stock faces increased competition
Samik Chatterjee expects supply chain constraints to have weighed on Supermicro’s Q2 earnings.
He cautions against owning SMCI stock at current levels as these issues could remain a meaningful headwind moving forward as well.
Additionally, the “upcoming AI server product cycle represents a much higher competitive backdrop with peers now boasting stronger portfolios and looking to more meaningfully participate in the industry,” the analyst added in his report.
Others including Matt Bryson of Wedbush Securities and Quinn Bolton of Needham also expect Super Micro Computer to fall short of its revenue guidance for fiscal 2026.
Plus, much of the good news already looks backed into SMCI shares considering they’ve already rallied more than 50% over the past two weeks.
Super Micro Computer Q2 earnings highlights
On Tuesday, the Nasdaq-listed firm reported 59 cents of per-share earnings (adjusted) on $5.65 billion in revenue.
Analysts, in comparison, were at 61 cents a share and $5.77 billion, respectively.
Super Micro Computer also lowered its guidance for fiscal 2025 last night to a maximum of $25 billion.
Its earlier guidance was for $26 billion to $30 billion instead. Still, Charles Liang – the company’s chief executive told investors in the earnings release:
With our leading direct-liquid cooling technology and over 30% of new data centres expected to adopt it in the next 12 months, Supermicro is well positioned to grow AI infrastructure design wins based on Nvidia Blackwell and more.
Last week, the company based out of San Jose, California announced full production availability of its AI data center Building Block Solutions powered by Nvidia’s latest Blackwell platform.
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